Film Forecaster reveals box office winners
Posted November 27, 2012
Twilight: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 continued to infiltrate the Twitterverse during Thanksgiving weekend, with competition from Box Office leaders Skyfall and the newly released, Rise of the Guardians - according to th USC Annenberg Innovation Lab and the IBM Film Forecaster, a Social Sentiment Index.
The Social Sentiment Index combines sophisticated analytics and natural language processing technologies to gauge positive, negative and neutral opinions shared in millions of public tweets. In this instance, the index was used to measure and understand moviegoers' views surrounding the biggest movie weekend – Thanksgiving.
The project evaluated over five million tweets over a time period of 11 days and compared the volume around Twilight: Breaking Dawn, to other movies in theaters, such as the next installment of James Bond, Skyfall, Wreck-It Ralph, Flight, and The Man with the Iron Fists, all of which opened one to two weeks prior to Twilight. The analysis also included sentiment around new Thanksgiving weekend releases including Life of Pi, Red Dawn, and Rise of the Guardians.
On Nov. 25, Box Office Mojo revealed Twilight generated approximately $64 million in ticket sales over the holiday weekend (Wednesday-Sunday) – 22 percent of the total revenue for the biggest Hollywood holiday weekend on record. The Twitter results over the 11 days offered a different perspective:
- Despite leading the pack with 4.25 million tweets compared to runner up Skyfall with 700,000, Twilight's positive sentiment dropped from 90 percent at pre-release to 75 percent on Saturday, Nov. 24. Some of the tweeted words were perceived as negative – not necessarily toward the movie, but the majority captured moviegoer "sadness" that the series was ending.
- Skyfall maintained a sentiment ratio of 9:1, receiving consistent positive tweets, and shared similar results to weekend newcomers Red Dawn (96 percent positive average), Life of Pi (91 percent) and Rise of the Guardians at 99 percent.
- On Thanksgiving Day, Rise of the Guardians generated the highest number of positive tweets, followed by The Man with the Iron Fists and Red Dawn.
- Flight, starring "Oscar" contender Denzel Washington received only 6,410 tweets, but most recorded tweets were positive.
- On opening day, Twilight received over 1 million tweets, 78 percent expressed positive sentiment. The majority of the remaining sentiment reflected the audiences' emotional reaction to the "tear-jerking" moments in the movie – so not necessarily negative.
"In the past, box office receipts indicated success or failure. Thanks to advances in analytics, movie makers now have the ability to analyze the public sentiments of their viewers in real time," said communication professor Jonathan Taplin, director of the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab. "With technologies such as the Film Forecaster, movie studios such as Lionsgate can go beyond receipts, to truly understand the voice of the crowd."
The collaboration between USC Annenberg and IBM is part of an ongoing initiative to demonstrate how advanced analytics technologies applied to big data can help Chief Marketing Officers (CMOs) in the sports, entertainment, retail, and news industry derive valuable insights from online public sentiment.
"Today, Box Office results and industry accolades are not the sole drivers of recognition across the movie community – real-time audience sentiment is a strong factor too," said Steve Canepa, General Manager of Media and Entertainment, IBM. "Organizations in the Media and Entertainment industry are now taking advantage of big data to better understand their audience and to deliver better products, services and marketing campaigns that ultimately drive greater results for their business."
Event: A Night Behind the Movies
On Wednesday, November 28, IBM and USC Annenberg will host a Consumer Sentiment Event, featuring a panel of experts in the movie industry. Movie enthusiasts and media and entertainment representatives have the opportunity to submit questions around social sentiment and the future of film using #moviebizbuzz or via Facebook. Selected questions will be asked during the event and answered by the following panelist:
- Rob Friedman, Co-Chairman of Lionsgate Motion Picture Group
- Professor Jonathan Taplin, Director of the Annenberg Innovation Lab, USC
- Kevin Driscoll, PhD candidate at the Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism
- Steve Canepa, General Manager, IBM Media & Entertainment Group
- David Barnes, Director of Emerging Technologies, IBM Software Group
For more information about: The University of Southern California Annenberg Innovation Lab visit http://www.annenberglab.com/; or IBM Media & Entertainment, visit www.ibm.com/media. Follow us on Twitter: @Smarter Media
About the IBM Social Sentiment Index
The IBM Social Sentiment Index uses advanced analytics and natural language processing technologies to analyze large volumes of social media data in order to assess public opinions. The Index can identify and measure positive, negative and neutral sentiments shared in public forums such as Twitter, blogs, message boards and other social media, and provide quick insights into consumer conversations about issues, products and services. Representing a new form of market research, social sentiment analyses offer organizations new insights that can help them better understand and respond to consumer trends. IBM's social sentiment capabilities are delivered on an industry-leading big data platform that can access, store and analyze any data regardless of how fast it is moving, what type it is, or where it resides. For more information about IBM Social Sentiment Index, please visit www.ibm.com/social-sentiment. Follow the conversation at #IBMIndex on Twitter.Enter USC Annenberg News Archive »back to top